ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

Abstract

 This study was designed to examine the economic impacts of public debt on economic growth in Asian countries between 1991 and 2020. Public debt is measured by the Public Debt Ratio, while real GDP per capita growth is measured by real GDP per capita growth. FDI, inflation, the 1997 and 2008 financial crises, as well as other determinants, are considered as control variables. With panel data regression, the study used several econometric techniques related to autoregressive distributed lag models, including unit root tests (IPS) to determine stationary at level, while LLC unit root tests were used to determine non-stationarity at level (1) and make them stationary. Co-integration tests such as Pedroni's (1999,2004) are performed on long run coefficients based on statistical significance and error correction. In this study, it is found that the long- and short-term impacts of public debt are adverse on economic growth. It was statistically significant that public debt had a negative impact on growth over the long and short terms; however, its magnitude varies. Using cointegration tests, it is established that there is an interrelationship between the variables on the panel level, while on the group level, they are interrelated within the individual groups (which is not relevant here since only one group is represented). A study found that both short- and long-term public debt negatively impacts economic growth. In both the long- and short-terms, public debt had a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth, but its magnitude varied. Hausman's test is used to compare PMG, MG, and DFE panel models. As part of our analysis, we use several mean group models, including pooled mean group models and dynamic fixed effects mean group models. When comparing data results using Hausman test results, the MG model is preferred over the PMG model. No matter how long or short-term state debt is, it adversely affects the economy's growth. In the final step, causality tests are used to identify cause and effect.  Evaluating public debt and economic growth also requires considering public expenditures, according to the study.